Oh well, at least she looked nice.

She has no chance whatsoever. It's between Leo and Steinfeld.
I'm happiestin the saddle.

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Winning the Oscar doesn't really matter in the scheme of things. It would be sweet but since getting these noms and other awards, Weaver has firm offers of three films, three TV series and a miniseries and more. That's what it's all about.

Melissa Leo has it in the bag. She should have won for frozen river and didn't, plus as Cienna said she's "paid her dues".
But Jacki being nommed is AWESOME!

I agree. I don't think nationality somes into it that much. But I suspect the winner of supporting actress will be an American - Leo (who's paid her dues) or perhaps Steinfeld (talented newbie).

You're really going to use the more voters from the US line after mentioning the Tilda Swinton upset? Both of the male categories are basically shoe-ins, and they're from across the pond.

I remember when Clive Owen and Natalie Portman were amazing in Closer (in supporting roles). They both deservedly won their Golden Globes, but lost the Oscars to Morgan Freeman (actor getting his dues) and Cate Blanchett for The Aviator (which was tough for me because I felt Cate got screwed when she lost to Gwyneth).
It's hard to say everyone thought Cate Blanchett was going to win for "I'm Not Here" but lost to Tilda Swinton(!), everyone thought Kate Hudson was going to win but lost to Marcia Gay Harden(!!!). In those cases, it was a more obscure and respected actress winning for their body of work. I feel like had it been anyone else but Melissa Leo, Jacki Weaver might have a chance, but Melissa has been around for a while and she's an American character actress who's ready for her due.
The Academy will more than likely give the Oscar to an American character actress who has been working for years in a supporting role, than an Australian one. And considering most of the voters are from the US well, you do the math.
I think a nomination will be the best thing that Jacki can expect.