tommyboy — 2 months ago(January 03, 2026 12:45 PM)

venezuela has been sending cheap oil to cuba for years (currently only 8-11 thousand barrels per day, up from up to 80 thousand) in exchange for doctors and intelligence. the new government in caracas, most likely led by nobel laureate maría corina machado, will almost certainly turn off the tap. cuba would be left without energy, transportation and hundreds of millions of dollars a year – at a time when it already has 18-hour power outages a day, inflation is several hundred percent and every fourth family is tied to remittances from miami. unlike in 1994, today's cubans are not the same: they have smartphones, social networks, relatives abroad and over 40% of the working-age population works in the private sector (2,500,000 "cuentapropistas" and small/micro businesses (out of a total population of 11 million), which hates state controls. the regime can no longer shut down information or keep the people in complete isolation.
therefore, the loss of venezuela will not be just another crisis to be “suffered by the heroes of the revolution,” but the final blow leading to the terminal phase of the sixty-year rule of castro’s successors. in short: the fall of maduro in 2026 will likely set off a domino effect that would, within a year or two, bring to an end the last two great “socialist” regimes in latin america—venezuela and cuba. for the first time in decades, the entire region could be free of openly anti-american and authoritarian leftist governments.