The Moose
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Kevbren849 — 9 years ago(December 22, 2016 11:00 AM)
with all the (more deserving) starting pitchers who have been elected in the last few years, I believe that Mussina and Schilling will be getting a substantial boost in the voting. they are by far the most established starting pitchers left on the ballot, with the notable exception of Roger Clemens.
Mussina got 43% last year, on his 3rd try, up from 24.6% 2 years ago. I believe he will crack 50% this year, and slowly but surely make his way to 75% by around his 6th or 7th try (2019-2020).
if you need an additional reason to put him in, he won 7 Gold Gloves over the course of his career. I realize nobody puts much emphasis on a pitcher's defense, but that is still impressive. once the ball is in play, he still has a job to do, so why shouldn't it be considered?
Notable starting pitchers appearing on the ballot in the near future:
2017
Tim Wakefield - Red Sox Hall of Fame? maybe. Cooperstown? not a chance
2018
Johan Santana - absolutely dominant during his prime, but injuries took their toll. unfortunately, his overall career stats just aren't HoF worthy
Jamie Moyer - 269 wins, but a stats compiler. a career ERA of 4.25 is way too high for the Hall
2019
Roy Halladay - I think he gets in, but not 1st ballot
Andy Pettitte - I love the guy, but unlikely
2020
Cliff Lee - his period of dominance was too short for Cooperstown
2021
Tim Hudson & Mark Buerhle - both very good, but not Hall of Famers
since none of them are obvious 1st ballot Hall of Famers, I think it will the argument for guys like Mussina and Schilling more compelling. -
klawrencio — 9 years ago(December 22, 2016 11:07 AM)
Roy Halladay - I think he gets in, but not 1st ballot
To me, Halladay is a quintessential borderline guy, but I don't think he gets in. Had some very nice years for sure, but just doesn't have that thing that puts him over the top. He's a lot like Saberhagen to me. Just one of the best guys to not make it in.
Johan Santana - absolutely dominant during his prime, but injuries took their toll. unfortunately, his overall career stats just aren't HoF worthy
Agreed, which is a real shame. Guy was so good but just doesn't have nearly the numbers or the longevity. -
Kevbren849 — 9 years ago(December 22, 2016 11:43 AM)
To me, Halladay is a quintessential borderline guy, but I don't think he gets in. Had some very nice years for sure, but just doesn't have that thing that puts him over the top. He's a lot like Saberhagen to me. Just one of the best guys to not make it in.
it's definitely debatable. 203 wins is low for a Hall of Famer. but he did spend the majority of his career on a mediocre team in Toronto. as a Yankee fan, I remember watching games against him in the mid 2000s. you could almost guarantee a Yankee loss when he was on the mound. -
AnotherCleverName — 9 years ago(December 22, 2016 11:50 AM)
I think Halliday gets in and it'll be proof that the BBWAA's criteria for pitchers has changed, they'll start to realize that things like 300 wins (of course this has never been a strict rule, but it sometimes close) is borderline impossible at this point, and they'll have to start relying on other things, like peak performances.
I think Pedro was already a bit of a test case for that, the difference of course being that Pedro's peak is probably the GOAT.
~I know that I know nothing.~ -
klawrencio — 9 years ago(December 22, 2016 11:54 AM)
That's fair and I largely agree about the criteria, but I don't even mean Halladay's wins. His numbers are very good, there's no doubt, and he has an impressive peak set of years, but overall I just don't see his body of work or peak performance being HOF worthy. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets in, but I don't think anyone should have a gripe if he finds himself on the outside looking in.
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AnotherCleverName — 9 years ago(December 22, 2016 12:06 PM)
I didn't mean to imply you did, I was just saying that I think Halladay might be the first of the pitchers we see that proves the tide is turning on how pitchers are judged. Their careers just aren't lasting long enough nowadays, and they're not pitching as much in general, so using raw numbers isn't going to work like it used to.
And I'm not really sure why I'm telling you this, since these are all things you fully understand, I'm just making my opinion known!
But since I'm already rambling, which active pitchers do you think are HoF bound? Because we know, more likely than not, none of them are going to make it close to the raw numbers typically associated with HoFers.
Kershaw probably, Koufaxian peak is probably enough if he can keep it up a few more years and not fall off a cliff.
A couple years ago I'd have said Felix Hernandez was well on his way, but he seems to be in steep decline, he might pull out of it though.
Verlander? If he maintains a few more years like last year, maybe.
Bumgarner's postseason narrative might be enough, but it hasn't helped Schilling.
Greinke probably not consistent enough.
Scherzer and Lester would need to finish out strong.
Price, probably not.
~I know that I know nothing.~ -
klawrencio — 9 years ago(December 22, 2016 12:10 PM)
I'm feeling a lot of pre-Christmas love here on the sports board! Put it here brother!!
As for current pitchers, it's tough to pinpoint, but I'd say if Kershaw continues his current path he should get in no problem. Hernandez certainly him self last year and his 2015 wasn't great by his own standards but he still has time to string together a few more quality years before hanging them up. -
haroldbaines — 9 years ago(December 23, 2016 02:04 PM)
Hallady and Sabathia are two completely different pitchers.
Hallady won 2 Cy youngs and came in 2nd twice, was a top 5 7 times. Pitched two no-hitters including one in post season. His ERA is .32 points lower than CCs.
Halladay would get in long before CC does. -
haroldbaines — 9 years ago(December 23, 2016 02:01 PM)
Sabathia should get in. He doesn't have many years left, but his prime was impressive.
No, no, no, no.
Who is he comparible with in baseball-reference?
Tim Hudson
Kevin Brown
Andy Pettite
Bob Welch
David Cone
Orel to name a few.
MOst if not all those guys had people saying exactly what you're saying and none of those guys will ever come close to being in the Hall of Fame.
CC is another Hall of Good pitcher in a long list of them. -
haroldbaines — 9 years ago(December 27, 2016 09:36 AM)
I would say no.
If wins don't matter in the regular season any more for Cy young why should they matter in HOF voting? Sabathia is the perfect Hall of Good pitcher. People said Hudson and Kevin Brown were going to be in the Hall in the middle and latter part of their careers too. Every year there's some veteran pitcher some folks say will be in the Hall but they never will. -
Kevbren849 — 9 years ago(December 22, 2016 11:17 AM)
one guy I think got overlooked by the writers:
Kenny Lofton
he was easily one of the top center fielders/leadoff men of the past 30 years. he was no Henderson, but who is? his career #s:
.299 batting average
.372 OBP
2428 hits
116 triples
622 stolen bases
1528 runs scored
6 time All-Star
4 Gold Gloves
and when he made his debut on the ballot in 2013, he got 3.2% of the vote. not even enough to stay on the ballot in 2014. I think it was largely bad luck of being on the same ballot as Clemens, Bonds, Schilling, Sosa, Piazza, and Biggio. maybe you don't think he's Hall of Fame worthy, it's certainly debatable. but he definitely deserved more than being removed from the ballot after 1 year. -
haroldbaines — 9 years ago(December 23, 2016 02:09 PM)
So why does Raines get all this love and Lofton not - when Lofton's average is higher, he doesn't have as many hits as Raines but almost as many runs scored in far less games, his OBP isn't that far below Raines and has more triples and gold gloves than Raines?
I know I'm in the minority on Raines, I don't think he belongs, the years he was great wasn't enough to equal HOF and the rest of his career, outside a couple seasons, was below average - not even good, just below average. In 23 seasons he didn't even get remotely close to 3000 hits. People want to put him in for his 7 all star years but outside that, not remotely a HOFer. -
bigbadwolf666 — 9 years ago(December 30, 2016 11:53 AM)
I agree. At least more than 3% and more just a one year shot. Anyone with a .300 average almost 400obp and 600 steals should be on the hall. The problem with kenny is that he never got any real love even in the majors. I remember him playing good for different teams that kept trading him around. But he was a team player. Never complained. Many with that type of talent wouldnt have handled it.
Why am I such a misfit? I am not just a nitwit.