https://www.axios.com/2026/02/06/gop-senate-midterms-2026
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Archived from the IMDb Discussion Forums — The Soapbox
sheetsadam1 — 1 month ago(February 06, 2026 06:45 PM)
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/06/gop-senate-midterms-2026
Top Republicans are increasingly worried about private polling that paints a dire picture of the midterms — and it's not just the House they're afraid of losing, it's also the Senate.
President Trump has warned Republicans that losing their slim House majority could lead to a third impeachment. But a Democratic takeover of the Senate would be a political earthquake — and neuter his last two years in office.
For the first time, GOP strategists are telling Axios that losing the Senate — where Republicans have a 53-47 majority — is a distinct possibility, and that they'll have to fight harder than expected to keep control.
Operatives say they've reviewed polling that shows the GOP facing competitive Senate races not just in traditional battlegrounds such as Michigan, Maine and North Carolina, but also in conservative states like Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
Top GOP strategists acknowledge that immigration and the economy — the two issues that drove Trump's win in 2024 — are now liabilities.
"A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate," one GOP operative who's reviewed internal polling told Axios. "Today, I would have to tell you it's far less certain."
The simmering concerns went semi-public this week, when Republican leaders sounded the alarm during a closed meeting with senators.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, delivered a sobering message about the party's headwinds.
A slide presentation indicated the party's toughest challenge, based on its national polling deficit, is in Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces a tough path to reelection.
Here's what's setting off GOP bells about the Senate:- The map's expanding
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is taking a lot of darts from his own party these days. But Republicans privately concede he's done a good job of recruiting Senate candidates in conservative states once seen as out of reach for Democrats.
Schumer got former Sen. Sherrod Brown to run again in Ohio, and former Rep. Mary Peltola to run in Alaska. Ohio Sen. Jon Husted and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan are the GOP incumbents.
Even if Democrats fail to win either race, Republicans now will need to spend potentially tens of millions to defend those seats. - The Texas problem
If incumbent Texas Sen. John Cornyn loses the upcoming GOP primary to state Attorney General Ken Paxton, polls suggest it could open the door to a Democrat winning Cornyn's seat in November.
The NRSC penned a memo this week arguing that Cornyn is "the only Republican candidate" who can "reliably win a general election matchup" against either Democratic state Rep. James Talarico or U.S. Rep Jasmine Crockett (D). (Republicans might get some help — the Democratic primary has gone harshly negative recently.)
Even if Paxton wins in November, many Republicans warn, the party will have to unexpectedly spend tens of millions of dollars more than if Cornyn is the nominee.
Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades. But Republicans aren't dismissing the possibility this year. Last weekend the party suffered a lopsided special election defeat for a state Senate seat.
Particularly glaring: Trump, who had endorsed the GOP candidate, won the district by 17 points in 2024. - The Georgia problem
The GOP's failure to recruit popular Gov. Brian Kemp for a Senate run has been a major setback in the party's efforts to pick off the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for reelection, Georgia's Jon Ossoff.
Kemp's decision not to run has left three lesser-known Republicans to fight for the GOP nomination — none with Kemp's fundraising chops.
Ossoff's has raised far more money than any GOP challenger and has over $25 million on hand. Whoever wins the bruising GOP primary will have to burn through cash before facing him.
It's far too early to make dire predictions about how Republicans will fare in 2026 Senate races.
The primary season has barely begun, and Democrats could nominate weak contenders in states such as Iowa, Maine and Michigan.
The pro-Senate GOP super PAC has nearly three times as much cash to spend as its Democratic counterpart.
The GOP also will benefit from the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC, which has a staggering $304 million in cash on hand.
Then there's megadonor Elon Musk, who's begun cutting big checks to conservative PACs.
"Sometimes I think the 'Panicans' in our party would be better off spending their money on Depends to help control all their bedwetting," one national GOP strategist told Axios
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Draft Barron Trump
- The map's expanding
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TSAF — 1 month ago(February 06, 2026 07:07 PM)
They should be afraid. 2018 was the only time in history a party lost the House but retained thr Senate and that was only because democrats had to defend twice as many seats. This year the number is flipped. They are doomed.
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sheetsadam1 — 1 month ago(February 06, 2026 07:15 PM)
I'm hopeful about Ohio for several reasons: 1) it's Vance's old seat, so Husted was never elected to it, 2) Brown has only lost an election twice in his career and is kicking ass in fundraising, 3) Vivek Ramaswamy is an absolutely terrible gubernatorial candidate and will drive down GOP turnout quite a bit.
I don't know as much about the others, but Alaska only has one House seat, so Peltola has won statewide before. And in Texas, Talarico - if he gets the nomination - is a very impressive candidate and his strategy of putting his religious background front and center and using scripture to justify his views could help him, similar to what Beshear has accomplished in Kentucky.
Draft Barron Trump -
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sheetsadam1 — 1 month ago(February 06, 2026 07:21 PM)
Hopefully when Democrats take back Congress in the midterms, they'll uncap the House, adding more seats, and push for statehood for DC and Puerto Rico, ensuring four more Democratic Senators.
Then the only thing that remains to be done is packing the court when the Democrats take back the White House (whether in 2028 or through the Speaker assuming the presidency after Trump and Vance are both impeached and removed).
Draft Barron Trump -
WarrenPeace — 1 month ago(February 06, 2026 07:51 PM)
Whenever or however Turd Face is gone then MAGA will die.
The best chance any of these Repubs. have at keeping their seats is to distance themselves from MAGA and go back to being the GOP.
Likeable as Bob Dole and McCaine were.
"Please vote to preserve the unique character of Warren…" - Robert Duvall