LOGAN will be a better movie than Doctor Strange if…
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troyplafond — 9 years ago(November 04, 2016 07:31 PM)
I don't think Logan will be the biggest R rated movie ever.
Wolverine franchise history:
X-Men Origins: Wolverine made 179 million domestic onto 373 million worldwide.
The Wolverine made 132 million domestic onto 414 million worldwide.
Content:
Deadpool was overly sexual, profane, and violent. However, teenagers (and younger) still turned out, because it was all gleefully over-the-top, and a hell of a good time. However, Logan isn't. Logan is down to earth, heavy, and dark, with likely a similar level of graphic violence and explicit language. This could turn off viewers.
Newness Factor:
Deadpool felt incredibly new for a superhero movie for its content. However, Logan doesn't have this benefit. While combining the R rated content in a superhero movie and dark content is new in our latest CBM boom, neither on its own is unique (Deadpool being R rated, BvS being dark). Additionally, the heavy themes and content is land that Marvel has covered wonderfully in their Netflix universe (Daredevil, Jessica Jones, Luke Cage). Therefore, Logan, while more unique than the average CBM, doesn't benefit from the same newness factor as Deadpool.
Release Date:
Releases right before Kong: Skull Island and Beauty and the Beast. Kong: Skull Island and Logan will both pull from the general action fan demographic. While Beauty and the Beast doesn't really overlap much with Logan's audience (except for me), the fact that it'll likely be a massive juggernaut can't help Logan.
That's not to say Logan will flat out bomb. I think it will be successful, and make a solid 500 million worldwide. It looks fantastic. The graphic, heavily themed superhero has been popularized by Marvel TV, which while removing the newness, should also help its accessibility a bit. Separating itself from prior Wolverine movies should only help. I just don't think it'll break out to a massive degree a la Deadpool. -
xenoliths — 9 years ago(November 06, 2016 10:36 AM)
Wolverine's history on the big screen matters very little. There's so much going for this movie. Jackman's last rodeo, R-rated, etc.
Look at Fast and Furious. It climbed gradually in box office profits before exploding and beating AoU in its 7th attempt.
Look at Iron Man. The last of the trilogy as horrible as it is made more money than the first two combined.
Welcome to Grim Dawn. -
troyplafond — 9 years ago(November 06, 2016 12:14 PM)
As much as I hate to say it, Furious 7's performance was boosted by Paul Walker's death. There's no way it would've gone that high if that didn't happen. Plus, the Furious movies before that were bigger than the Wolverine movies, and better recieved.
Iron Man 3 was the first movie after the Avengers, the only reason it went that high.
I can't argue that the movie has a decent amount going for it, but I just don't see it climbing much past 500 million. -
xenoliths — 9 years ago(November 06, 2016 08:03 PM)
Then I'll also argue that this movie will be boosted by the fact that it's Jackman's last run, that it will be rated R which is what most fans have wanted from the beginning, and that it is loosely based off of a story that is currently very popular.
Hugh Jackman's Wolverine character whether he was in a good or bad movie has always been popular. As a character he was always well received, beloved even. And now, the character will soon be singing his swan song. That's got to count for a lot of interest. just as it does to long running movie characters like Harry Potter.
I guess we'll see in 5 months. I'm getting a bigger vibe from Logan than Deadpool, and Deadpool was a phenomenon.
Welcome to Grim Dawn. -
cjp2157 — 9 years ago(November 07, 2016 06:38 AM)
it's Jackman's last run
I don't think people care that much. He's been Wolverine for 16 years.. it's getting tiring.
that it will be rated R which is what most fans have wanted from the beginning
Those fans make up a tiny percentage of the viewing audience.
that it is loosely based off of a story that is currently very popular.
An even smaller percentage knows that story
Hugh Jackman's Wolverine character whether he was in a good or bad movie has always been popular.
Not popular enough according to The Wolverine box office.