Here's hoping that the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds
-
soapbox original gangster — 9 months ago(June 24, 2025 11:22 PM)
to what ultimate end? both countries hate each other and view each as lethal threats. i consider iran a true existential threat not only to the region but beyond. i also hold israel accountable for human rights abuses/violations: nobody gets a free pass if adults are at the table and enforcing customary International law. i thought trump badly overplayed the hand by doing the B-2 waltz instead of taking out iran's capabilities via spec-ops, cyber, and drone strikes: short of tactical battlefield nukes, Trump's shot the wad and there's nothing left to shock and awe the audience.
in a perfect, idealism running wild world, a ceasefire as prelude to a settlement would be great! but i dont think this will ever happen.
no way there's gonna be a revolution in iran, peaceful, blue velvet, or otherwise. likewise, Netanyahu will not get voted out, short of an all out assault from the Arab states. if it gets worse with Iran, then there are waiting in the wings even more extremists than him ready to step in and finish the job. and there's no Iranian "moderates" to assume power if by a miracle the regime crumbles like USSR did.
i think this ceasefire is just geoplotical theatre where all involved can claim short-term benefits/victories which will play well with the base and also with the the most important member of the cast, but ,as always, uncredited: the Global markets.
my instinct is that Trump truly believes the Iranian leaders can be reasoned with and brought to a neutral place for a formal cessation of hostilities agreement/treaty; and then the country will start opening up to american business practices, entertainment, etc; and all this under the rubric of " Trump International", LLC.
and i also think that no way no how Iran will not strike US targets/facilities in the region as payback for the bunker busting party they didnt RSVP to, and both the international and domestic loss of face. worst case: Iran has several electric submarines, which, if properly maintained and operated are almost virtually undetectable by any sonar system, and these could sink a carrier or destroyer. Trump would then order a nuclear Shake&Bake of Iran, and gladly gloat about it for 2026 mid-term election wins. -
Corwin — 9 months ago(June 24, 2025 11:33 PM)
You ask a good question, and I am not sure the answer. I was just hoping that it would not go on and go wider and draw in the whole region.
And you're right about both countries. Iran is one of the 4 great adversary countries to us in the West, has been horrible to its people and a real ****head on the region. I was ok with attacking the nuclear facilities. Too bad that it sounds like it was ineffective.
And yeah, that's astute: there's no real Iranian opposition. It's the same assholes all the way down. Regime change will not be easy. -
Yermom_Is_God — 9 months ago(June 25, 2025 12:34 AM)
Israel broke it immediately. Like right after the deal was made but right before it went into effect they dropped more bombs. Kinda funny. It was so childish. It's like little kids fighting and one going "Time out!" Then they stop for a second and the kid says time in, slaps him really quick and says "OK time out!"
"I am Kamala Harris, my pronouns are she and her, and I am a woman sitting at the table wearing a blue suit." -A fucking idiot