Conan will flop on the Tonight Show
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liquid_filmmaking — 16 years ago(June 11, 2009 02:47 AM)
Jay and his show always bothered me. It felt too plastic and disposable, too fake. I guess you guys already called it the Budweiser of comedy, it's also the McDonalds of comedy. Very reliable, and for many people it is a comfort food.
But for me, I get too much of it and it starts to unnerve me. I guess i need some spontaneity in humor, something that keeps it real and fearless.
Jay's show obviously worked for many viewers, so my hats off to him. But for me, it just always bothered me in some subconscious way.
I think Conan is already doing a more energetic show, but only time will tell if that is good enough for the corporate masters. -
cjoklb — 16 years ago(June 11, 2009 03:10 AM)
Jay fans talk in numbers because that is ALL he had. Sorry, but ratings doesn't equal quality. If it did, then American Idol would be one of the greatest shows in the history of television. Jay got his ratings because he was willing to be what mainstream America wanted him to be. The steak-n-potatoes, church-going, Budweiser drinking, pick-up-truck driving, George W Bush supporting, mainstream America. Dave during the 80's and early 90's was an edgy, unpredictable, wild man and even though Carson believed that Dave was the only guy suitable to take over the Tonight Show, they gave it to Leno because NBC saw Jay as the safer choice for their bottom line. I guess it paid off for THEM, but everyone else had to sit by and watch the best man lose to a hack.
Leno had his ratings, Dave has his critical acclaim. You can say Jay dominated Dave in the ratings, but Dave dominated the awards. "Late Show" won 12 awards (9 Emmys) and was nominated 75 other times; "Tonight" under Leno won 7 awards (4 Emmys) and was only nominated 41 other times. So even though Jay has the beloved bible belt and deep south in his pocket, intelligent, well informed critics side with Dave. -
danny666 — 16 years ago(June 11, 2009 02:44 AM)
Leno always had the best monologues. His comedy bits usually suck, and he gives a decent interview. Again I boycotted Leno, because I thought he backstabbed Letterman. It wasn't until 2001, that I decided to give Leno a chance after I quit watching Letterman and then Conan.
I watched Conan from day one of his show and was a fan and would post on his newsgroup which used to be the main place for Internet fans to gather, he's former jew girlfriend who worked at the show would post one sentence updates there. Anyway, I grew sick of Conan because for a long while he basically did the same bits and had the same schtick on his monolougue, I just had to denounce him after basically yelling at the screen how much he sucked. I did the same with Letterman in 1995 after he had this f'ing gigantic Slot machine or comedy machine on for six months straight. That was just comedy laziness.
And just watching both Letterman and Conan shows they still are basically doing the same old act. The thing about Letterman is that he is more biased on his political views and doesn't even try to be fair. He's also lazy. And it all stems from the fact that he has a contract that continued to pay him more than even Leno and CBS has no power over him. I think there is no reason in the world to sign him to anything longer than a year at a time at half the pay. CBS deserves what they get if they renew his contract for two years. He will always average a max of 3.0.
Conan on the other had will only get 2.5 max. There is no way he'll get new fans, especially people who watched Leno. -
danny666 — 16 years ago(June 11, 2009 05:53 PM)
I said within three months. I'm great a making correct predictions. Not only flop movies on IMDB, but TV shows. I called Letterman becoming number two at late night, back in the day, on his newsgroup after I was a regular poster there, because if a core fan for years was thinking of quiting watching what about the marignal viewers.
There is a flaw in my prediction because I really don't have the hard numbers of Conan's 12:35 timeslot, I'm assuming about 1.8. It's going to be tough but I'm aiming toward the fence and calling sub 2.0 within three months. It it only hits 2.2 then I'll say it's a draw. Above 2.3 then I'll consider myself in error. -
danny666 — 16 years ago(June 11, 2009 06:56 PM)
No I said Conan will do a sub 2.0 rating within 3 months. And I did some research and Conan at times finished with as low as 1.4 OVERALL rating, and even lost to Ferguson at times at 12:35.
Here is how Conan can get a sub 2.0 rating. Some of Conan's audience could be Letterman fans who watched both shows. But again Dave has no upside and he's maxed out at 2.5-3.5 because people can't tolerate him at all. So some Leno fans have nowhere left to go, so its a matter of keeping them. That is why I say Conan won't and they'll leave late night talk show watching all together. Please apologize to me on this thread when Conan gets a sub 2.0 rating by September.
Another thing, if Conan doesn't get a sub 2.0 rating by September he'll get one by the end of 2009, becuase Leno will be back and he'll take some of his audience back and he'll provide a weak lead-in for Conan.
My suggestion for CBS is to fire Dave and move Craig Ferguson up to 11:35. He'll be 75 percent cheaper than Letterman, and he can compete with Conan. But this time Conan would not have that huge lead in audience he got from Leno. -
danny666 — 16 years ago(July 06, 2009 06:31 PM)
Everything is still going according to plan. We will see a 2.3 rating or below by September 15th.
Weak monologue and guests, wierd humor that newer viewers don't or want to understand. The guy is in his mid forties so he isn't going to constantly add younger viewers to late night. He has his old 12:35 audience and some of that audience likes Dave better if they have to choose. I think they are just going to not watch network late night shows.
Conan will fail because its all a matter of keeping a lot of viewers who only watched Leno, and I don't think that is going to happen. -
A_rod — 16 years ago(July 06, 2009 10:53 PM)
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Any feeding of a troll has severe consequences.
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but, it can quickly turn into this
http://www.concertshots.com/August 2006/cs-CarlosMencia10-Athens0816 06.JPG -
danny666 — 16 years ago(July 07, 2009 12:58 AM)
I was watching Conan when he was getting a 0.7 rating back in '93. I'm just stating a prediction and also bumping my post so it will still be here when it's time to gloat. Most of my predictions are usually right. Imagine your shock when Conan gets a 2.3 rating.
It's based on the fact of what Conan's ratings were at 12:35(1.5) and how I think the original Leno audience that watched NBC at 11:35 will decide to break the habit and not watch. Specifically using my experience as a former Conan veiwer to estimate that length of time it would take get sick of him. The time would be faster for a Leno only fan than a regular Conan fan.
And I'm not a Leno fan, always thought his comedy bit sucked, but his monologue was always watchable. And depending on the guest it had to be a pretty good one, to make me keep watching through Leno's comedy bits. I think Conan's comedy bits are his strength but they are repetitive, but I've only watched his shows from 93-2000, but they seem the same based on the few TSWCOB I've seen. -
danny666 — 16 years ago(July 09, 2009 08:51 PM)
The week of June 29th the average rating for Conan was 2.1, that's for total audience.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/07/09/“nightline”-was-1-among-total-viewers-adults-25-54-and-adults-18-49-for-the-week/22588
(Week of June 29, 2009)
TOTAL VIEWERS A25-54(000)/ Rtg A18-49(000)/ Rtg
ABC Nightline 4,020,000 1,590,000/ 1.3 1,320,000/ 1.0
CBS Late Show 3,580,000 1,530,000/ 1.2 1,100,000/ .8
NBC Tonight 2,420,000 1,270,000/ 1.0 1,290,000/ 1.0
Source: NTI
Okay Conan was in reruns, but I said within three months. I still think that Conan will get 2.0 rating for new episodes too. The magic number is 2.3 million total audience, because a ratings point equals 1.15 million viewers.
