Conan will flop on the Tonight Show
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danny666 — 16 years ago(June 11, 2009 05:53 PM)
I said within three months. I'm great a making correct predictions. Not only flop movies on IMDB, but TV shows. I called Letterman becoming number two at late night, back in the day, on his newsgroup after I was a regular poster there, because if a core fan for years was thinking of quiting watching what about the marignal viewers.
There is a flaw in my prediction because I really don't have the hard numbers of Conan's 12:35 timeslot, I'm assuming about 1.8. It's going to be tough but I'm aiming toward the fence and calling sub 2.0 within three months. It it only hits 2.2 then I'll say it's a draw. Above 2.3 then I'll consider myself in error. -
danny666 — 16 years ago(June 11, 2009 06:56 PM)
No I said Conan will do a sub 2.0 rating within 3 months. And I did some research and Conan at times finished with as low as 1.4 OVERALL rating, and even lost to Ferguson at times at 12:35.
Here is how Conan can get a sub 2.0 rating. Some of Conan's audience could be Letterman fans who watched both shows. But again Dave has no upside and he's maxed out at 2.5-3.5 because people can't tolerate him at all. So some Leno fans have nowhere left to go, so its a matter of keeping them. That is why I say Conan won't and they'll leave late night talk show watching all together. Please apologize to me on this thread when Conan gets a sub 2.0 rating by September.
Another thing, if Conan doesn't get a sub 2.0 rating by September he'll get one by the end of 2009, becuase Leno will be back and he'll take some of his audience back and he'll provide a weak lead-in for Conan.
My suggestion for CBS is to fire Dave and move Craig Ferguson up to 11:35. He'll be 75 percent cheaper than Letterman, and he can compete with Conan. But this time Conan would not have that huge lead in audience he got from Leno. -
danny666 — 16 years ago(July 06, 2009 06:31 PM)
Everything is still going according to plan. We will see a 2.3 rating or below by September 15th.
Weak monologue and guests, wierd humor that newer viewers don't or want to understand. The guy is in his mid forties so he isn't going to constantly add younger viewers to late night. He has his old 12:35 audience and some of that audience likes Dave better if they have to choose. I think they are just going to not watch network late night shows.
Conan will fail because its all a matter of keeping a lot of viewers who only watched Leno, and I don't think that is going to happen. -
A_rod — 16 years ago(July 06, 2009 10:53 PM)
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but, it can quickly turn into this
http://www.concertshots.com/August 2006/cs-CarlosMencia10-Athens0816 06.JPG -
danny666 — 16 years ago(July 07, 2009 12:58 AM)
I was watching Conan when he was getting a 0.7 rating back in '93. I'm just stating a prediction and also bumping my post so it will still be here when it's time to gloat. Most of my predictions are usually right. Imagine your shock when Conan gets a 2.3 rating.
It's based on the fact of what Conan's ratings were at 12:35(1.5) and how I think the original Leno audience that watched NBC at 11:35 will decide to break the habit and not watch. Specifically using my experience as a former Conan veiwer to estimate that length of time it would take get sick of him. The time would be faster for a Leno only fan than a regular Conan fan.
And I'm not a Leno fan, always thought his comedy bit sucked, but his monologue was always watchable. And depending on the guest it had to be a pretty good one, to make me keep watching through Leno's comedy bits. I think Conan's comedy bits are his strength but they are repetitive, but I've only watched his shows from 93-2000, but they seem the same based on the few TSWCOB I've seen. -
danny666 — 16 years ago(July 09, 2009 08:51 PM)
The week of June 29th the average rating for Conan was 2.1, that's for total audience.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/07/09/“nightline”-was-1-among-total-viewers-adults-25-54-and-adults-18-49-for-the-week/22588
(Week of June 29, 2009)
TOTAL VIEWERS A25-54(000)/ Rtg A18-49(000)/ Rtg
ABC Nightline 4,020,000 1,590,000/ 1.3 1,320,000/ 1.0
CBS Late Show 3,580,000 1,530,000/ 1.2 1,100,000/ .8
NBC Tonight 2,420,000 1,270,000/ 1.0 1,290,000/ 1.0
Source: NTI
Okay Conan was in reruns, but I said within three months. I still think that Conan will get 2.0 rating for new episodes too. The magic number is 2.3 million total audience, because a ratings point equals 1.15 million viewers. -
danny666 — 16 years ago(July 09, 2009 10:16 PM)
I said a 2.0 rating within three months. First off I don't recall Leno ever getting a 2.0 rating rerun or not, even a 3.0 rating would be a low rating for a Leno rerun. It's pretty pathetic rating and just because you don't like the message doesn't make it "trolling".
Again, Conan will get an unheard of 2.0 rating or below within three months of his show, I'll even say it can be a new episode. But I'm just noting that it already hit below the 2.3 rating, so I don't ever have to admit I'm wrong. I'm already proven right with this 2.1 rating that Conan got average throughout the week. Frankly, I wish they'd post each individual days, because it had to have hit below 2.0 on one of the days. -
danny666 — 16 years ago(July 16, 2009 09:03 PM)
Okay it's official. I am right on my 'shocking' prediction that Conan would get a 2.0 rating, and it's a new episode!(I mean I was kind of hedging by not mentioning new, I was thinking a 2.0 for a rerun within 3 months.)
Again, I like Conan, but I honestly see him getting a sub 1.6 rating before the end of the year. My other new prediction is that he will average below a 2.0 rating for an entire week(new episodes) sometime after Leno starts in September.
Ratings will freefall once Leno starts in September, and also that a low ratings 'storyline' is known by the mainstream audience. We will see new lows.from lastest ratings press release:
LATE SHOW beat "The Tonight Show" in households (2.6/07 vs. 2.0/05, +30%) and viewers (3.68m vs. 2.82m, +30%). It was LATE SHOWs largest margin of victory against an all first-run week of "Tonight Show" broadcasts in both households and viewers since the week ending Feb. 25, 2000 -
danny666 — 16 years ago(July 30, 2009 12:12 PM)
Here's the actual numbers for week #8:
Conan: 1.8/5 2.51m viewers, 18-49 1.0, 25-54 Tie,
David: 2.4/6 3.32m viewers, 18-49 0.8, 25-54 Tie
I just want to maintain the theme I had from my Conan will flop thread that I started in early June. This is not about Letterman. I've always stated that his ratings will stay relatively the same. It is about Conan continuing to lose the Tonight show audience. It's just so obvious to see. He had a 1.4 rating at late night, who and why would more people want to watch his type of show, especially the Leno audience. Using my previous Conan viewing history and the rate I became disenchanted with his show(as a hardcore Conan fan) I projected an accelerated timeline it would take for the "Leno only" audience to be sick of him. It's definitely at a faster rate than I even expected. I thought it would be a solid two months of Conan bodyblow of lameness(aka pantomiming each joke, same batch of bits, etc), before their would be a slight downward tick then would rapidly excelerate.
I still see the ratings going down even worse. I think Conan is going to lose some core fans, his show has been that terrible lately.
The new variable I'm seeing is the core audience will abandon Conan, so I don't know where the botton will be. I thought a 1.5 rating would be the floor. Again I saw a free-fall of Conan ratings when Leno took over, but frankly Conan already chased the Leno viewers, so it may not be a factor. The new question is can he keep his base and maintain that 1.5 bottom rating.
