Dead Men Tell No Tales Prediction
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L0GAN5 — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 03:10 AM)
I see this being another lone ranger, john carter, and tomorrowland.
The reason there was a Lone Ranger, John Carter and Tomorrowland in the first place was because there wasn't an audience to begin with. POTC has to shed about 80% of its fanbase to get to that state. Not gonna happen. -
saxondale7 — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 07:19 AM)
Alice 2, of course, being an exceptional case in the modern era, even taking how belated it was into account.
Ignoring that it's a false equivalency, I'm not sure why you are betting on the extreme scenario as a certainty. Whilst it's at least different that someone is betting on the extreme low, as opposed to extreme highs, I'm not sure why posters on this board feel the need to push an extreme as their guess. So strangers can give you a virtual pat on the back in a year?
Shut it, Love Actually! Do you want me to hole punch your face? -
TrevorAclea — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 08:03 AM)
Depp's grosses outside the Pirates franchise have always been considerably lower. Even after the first film boosted his profile, it wasn't until Alice that he had a comparable hit:
Once Upon a Time in Mexico - $98m
Secret Window - $93m
Finding Neverland - $117m
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $475m
The Corpse Bride - $117m
The Libertine - $11m
Even after the two sequels did over a billion, his other films got nowhere near until Alice:
Sweeney Todd - $152m
Public Enemies - $214m
The Imaginarium - $62m
The Tourist - $267m
After the fourth film he's still not doing Pirates business even though his tentpoles pull in more (but not enough) money:
The Rum Diary - $24m
Dark Shadows - $245m
The Lone Ranger - $260m
Transcendence - $103m
Into the Woods - $213m
Mortdecai - $47m
Black Mass - $99m
And it's worth noting that even as a flop, Alice 2 pulled in $299m despite the generally turgid reputation of the first film.
It's hard to argue his popularity is falling off a cliff: his small indie pet projects flop as they've always flopped, his 'respectable' studio dramas just about break even as they always have and his non-Pirates tentpoles still do around quarter of a billion or so. Nothing there to indicate Pirates V is going to sink with all hands.
The franchise is basically his Indiana Jones, and his career not dissimilar to Harrison Ford's: fewer genuine hits than you think but the flops generally made more money than they would with other stars and there was always a blockbuster franchise waiting in the wings to boost his profile and box-office average after people had written him off. Like Ford, who people want to see as Han or Indy but don't want to see as that grumpy guy in other stuff, there's a very particular kind of role in a very specific kind of film that audiences want to see him in that doesn't carry over to his other films.
"Security - release the badgers." -
TrevorAclea — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 09:42 AM)
Even then, depps image took a huge blow due to the amber heard allegiations
And yet the film still took $299m, even with Heard timing her announcement the week of the film's release and just after Depp's mother's death to cause him the maximum pain. Regardless of whether the accusations are true or not (and I have no idea if they are), she's probably suffered more damage than he has in the long run with the allegations that she committed domestic violence on a partner several years earlier and her angry reaction to Depp paying the divorce settlement directly to the charities she said she'd donate it to. By next summer there will be other media scandals. By contrast Depp's played it much smarter, keeping his head down and not going on the attack in the press. The press have moved on to Brangelina and by the time Pirates 5 comes out there'll be another scandal to occupy a public that's shown it has a pretty short memory for those sort of things. After all, we're in an era where a presidential candidate can insult the parents of dead veterans, slander entire ethnic groups and boast about not paying taxes and wanting to schtupp his own daughter and see his poll ratings go up.
Marketplace dramatically changed since pirates 4
Not that dramatically beyond some further international growth, which could help offset the exchange rate problems. It's an overseas heavy franchise.
i dont think theres much interest for a 5th pirates film.
So people said about the last two when predicting disaster based on the domestic take, yet they both outgrossed the first film WW, and the last one is the second highest grosser of the franchise. With Depp and Pirates people tend to project their own lack of interest in a sequel onto the rest of the world, but the rest of the world still turns out to see them.
"Security - release the badgers." -
cornnetto — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 08:03 AM)
That was not an establish movie franchise, but a sequel of a movie.
Ice age, transformer, etc are better example of a drop in interest in a franchise.
Pirate 5 could certainly get the Transformer 2 to 4 domestic drop for an example. -
TrevorAclea — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 09:46 AM)
Alice comes across like the original Ghostbusters, Grease, Basic Instinct, Love Story, Terms of Endearment, King Kong, Bruce Almighty or American Graffiti - the kind of film that's really a one-off and was never the kind of thing you could turn into a franchise but made far too much money for the studios to resist trying anyway.
"Security - release the badgers." -
niks_foonts — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 05:17 PM)
There is a difference. Alice 2 was a sequel to movie which did not need a sequel and wasn't an established franchise while Pirates 5 is part of a franchise. There is no way a film from an established franchise like Pirates will drop to less than $100 million domestic.
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xbs2034 — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 05:08 AM)
But if you say Terminator was never as big as Pirates domestically, I think adjusting for inflation (which isn't 100% perfect, but I do think is a better measure of how popular films were than just straight gross, particularly in the home video era which T2 and the Pirates films released in) and showing that T2 was the biggest film of its year (which only one Pirates film has been) shows that at least that film very much measures up in domestic popularity.
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niks_foonts — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 10:42 AM)
I am talking about the series as a franchise. T2 is the only gigantic commercial success of the franchise. That and The Terminator are the only unqualified successes. T4 and T5 are outright flops while T3 probably underperformed. POTC is basically four films which are all successes. So as a franchise, POTC is significantly bigger than Terminator.
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niks_foonts — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 10:39 AM)
I am talking about the franchise. T2 is the only monster success in the franchise, but the series as a whole is not as big as POTC. It's a franchise which has two outright flops and one underperformed. POTC has four films which are unqualified blockbusters.
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cornnetto — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 10:48 AM)
POTC has four films which are unqualified blockbusters.
Nowaday you would find people thinking they are big flops, a 410 million movie with a 170 million world release that only did
241,071,802 * .53 + (804,642,000-70,000,00) * .4 + 70,000,000* .25 = 464 million, that a big flop that lost 116 million in post batman v superman people mind now. -
niks_foonts — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 09:46 PM)
Was I speaking in a different language? Because I'm pretty sure I clearly said that neither Ice Age nor Terminator is as big as POTC 'domestically'. And in any case you are wrong because POTC has had 3 billion plus grossers. How many did Ice Age have?
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xbs2034 — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 06:28 PM)
Actually Alice opened the same day the abuse allegations came out, so that perhaps had the worst timing and impact possible.
But as you can see, I'm not predicting big things for the film and think even an outright flop is possible. -
cornnetto — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 08:46 AM)
And it's worth noting that even as a flop, Alice 2 pulled in $299m despite the generally turgid reputation of the first film.
This, 300 million is an impressive amount for something that look like it flopped so much.
Could have made 340 million with a more standard exchange rate and not be perceived as a flop.
Lost at least 10.5 (euro) + 2.57 (pound) + 8.6 (rouble) + 5.15 (real) vs 2014 summer.