Dead Men Tell No Tales Prediction
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TrevorAclea — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 09:46 AM)
Alice comes across like the original Ghostbusters, Grease, Basic Instinct, Love Story, Terms of Endearment, King Kong, Bruce Almighty or American Graffiti - the kind of film that's really a one-off and was never the kind of thing you could turn into a franchise but made far too much money for the studios to resist trying anyway.
"Security - release the badgers." -
niks_foonts — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 05:17 PM)
There is a difference. Alice 2 was a sequel to movie which did not need a sequel and wasn't an established franchise while Pirates 5 is part of a franchise. There is no way a film from an established franchise like Pirates will drop to less than $100 million domestic.
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xbs2034 — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 05:08 AM)
But if you say Terminator was never as big as Pirates domestically, I think adjusting for inflation (which isn't 100% perfect, but I do think is a better measure of how popular films were than just straight gross, particularly in the home video era which T2 and the Pirates films released in) and showing that T2 was the biggest film of its year (which only one Pirates film has been) shows that at least that film very much measures up in domestic popularity.
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niks_foonts — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 10:42 AM)
I am talking about the series as a franchise. T2 is the only gigantic commercial success of the franchise. That and The Terminator are the only unqualified successes. T4 and T5 are outright flops while T3 probably underperformed. POTC is basically four films which are all successes. So as a franchise, POTC is significantly bigger than Terminator.
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niks_foonts — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 10:39 AM)
I am talking about the franchise. T2 is the only monster success in the franchise, but the series as a whole is not as big as POTC. It's a franchise which has two outright flops and one underperformed. POTC has four films which are unqualified blockbusters.
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cornnetto — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 10:48 AM)
POTC has four films which are unqualified blockbusters.
Nowaday you would find people thinking they are big flops, a 410 million movie with a 170 million world release that only did
241,071,802 * .53 + (804,642,000-70,000,00) * .4 + 70,000,000* .25 = 464 million, that a big flop that lost 116 million in post batman v superman people mind now. -
niks_foonts — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 09:46 PM)
Was I speaking in a different language? Because I'm pretty sure I clearly said that neither Ice Age nor Terminator is as big as POTC 'domestically'. And in any case you are wrong because POTC has had 3 billion plus grossers. How many did Ice Age have?
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xbs2034 — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 06:28 PM)
Actually Alice opened the same day the abuse allegations came out, so that perhaps had the worst timing and impact possible.
But as you can see, I'm not predicting big things for the film and think even an outright flop is possible. -
cornnetto — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 08:46 AM)
And it's worth noting that even as a flop, Alice 2 pulled in $299m despite the generally turgid reputation of the first film.
This, 300 million is an impressive amount for something that look like it flopped so much.
Could have made 340 million with a more standard exchange rate and not be perceived as a flop.
Lost at least 10.5 (euro) + 2.57 (pound) + 8.6 (rouble) + 5.15 (real) vs 2014 summer. -
Megadonna — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 05:17 PM)
I think we're going to see a lot of growth in some markets and a lot of dipping in others.
The last one despite being called every negative term in the book on IMDB made a billion despite the name calling. And the difference between this and Alice is the POTC formula. It hasn't been tried since The Lone Ranger so its something different for both Depp and Disney next summer. That won't however save this long awaited movie from doing bad bussiness in some countries.
My prediction:
180M Domestic
300M China
400M Other markets
880M WW -
cornnetto — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 08:45 PM)
Trailer is out:
I just took a quick look, not sure they use any establish character in the trailer (no Sparrow at least), the guy look like he could be playing Orlando Bloom son.
It look like a giant event affair with the giant score and all, it is hard to imagine dropping that much from the 4. -
Fishbowl-Space-Helmet — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 10:36 PM)
Them only mentioning Jack Sparrow (and not seeing him) was a cool move, I thought. It gives the impression that they're whetting the appetite before his "return shot" in the main trailer.
Skipping page long posts for over a year now. -