Dead Men Tell No Tales Prediction
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cornnetto — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 10:48 AM)
POTC has four films which are unqualified blockbusters.
Nowaday you would find people thinking they are big flops, a 410 million movie with a 170 million world release that only did
241,071,802 * .53 + (804,642,000-70,000,00) * .4 + 70,000,000* .25 = 464 million, that a big flop that lost 116 million in post batman v superman people mind now. -
niks_foonts — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 09:46 PM)
Was I speaking in a different language? Because I'm pretty sure I clearly said that neither Ice Age nor Terminator is as big as POTC 'domestically'. And in any case you are wrong because POTC has had 3 billion plus grossers. How many did Ice Age have?
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xbs2034 — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 06:28 PM)
Actually Alice opened the same day the abuse allegations came out, so that perhaps had the worst timing and impact possible.
But as you can see, I'm not predicting big things for the film and think even an outright flop is possible. -
cornnetto — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 08:46 AM)
And it's worth noting that even as a flop, Alice 2 pulled in $299m despite the generally turgid reputation of the first film.
This, 300 million is an impressive amount for something that look like it flopped so much.
Could have made 340 million with a more standard exchange rate and not be perceived as a flop.
Lost at least 10.5 (euro) + 2.57 (pound) + 8.6 (rouble) + 5.15 (real) vs 2014 summer. -
Megadonna — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 05:17 PM)
I think we're going to see a lot of growth in some markets and a lot of dipping in others.
The last one despite being called every negative term in the book on IMDB made a billion despite the name calling. And the difference between this and Alice is the POTC formula. It hasn't been tried since The Lone Ranger so its something different for both Depp and Disney next summer. That won't however save this long awaited movie from doing bad bussiness in some countries.
My prediction:
180M Domestic
300M China
400M Other markets
880M WW -
cornnetto — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 08:45 PM)
Trailer is out:
I just took a quick look, not sure they use any establish character in the trailer (no Sparrow at least), the guy look like he could be playing Orlando Bloom son.
It look like a giant event affair with the giant score and all, it is hard to imagine dropping that much from the 4. -
Fishbowl-Space-Helmet — 9 years ago(October 02, 2016 10:36 PM)
Them only mentioning Jack Sparrow (and not seeing him) was a cool move, I thought. It gives the impression that they're whetting the appetite before his "return shot" in the main trailer.
Skipping page long posts for over a year now. -
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TrevorAclea — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 09:52 AM)
The problem is that there are (unconfirmed by respected sources) rumors that it went way over budget and might finish costing around the last one, i.e. ~$400 mil.
$800m seems about right, though the budget rumors surprise me. I was under the impression that the reason for the incredibly long post-production period (it shot back in Spring 2015, more than two years before the release date) was to avoid all the massive cost overruns on the last two films when they were rushing to meet the release date and pouring money into the effects to get them ready in time. Even with three weeks of reshoots in Spring, it doesn't seem like there was major surgery, though this has been one of those franchises that has a lot of built-in problems that drive budget overruns - not least filming at sea.
"Security - release the badgers." -
allblacks-1 — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 03:59 PM)
To follow my answer to Trev - and to be Daily Mail-precise - the overrun 'was' $70 mil. over greenlighted budget of $250 mil. and with production far from over.
Personally I definitely can see this movie costing close to $300 mil. after rebates.
But to move towards or beyond $400 for the second time in a row - after hiring cheapest and experience-ed directors available (two for the price of half-Rob Marshall I bet and might add) and doing everything,including reserving 2 years for post, in their power to avoid overruns - would truly be something.
Should that be true - Nic Cage will never see another "National Treasure"-paycheck, that's for sure.