Dead Men Tell No Tales Prediction
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allblacks-1 — 9 years ago(October 03, 2016 03:59 PM)
To follow my answer to Trev - and to be Daily Mail-precise - the overrun 'was' $70 mil. over greenlighted budget of $250 mil. and with production far from over.
Personally I definitely can see this movie costing close to $300 mil. after rebates.
But to move towards or beyond $400 for the second time in a row - after hiring cheapest and experience-ed directors available (two for the price of half-Rob Marshall I bet and might add) and doing everything,including reserving 2 years for post, in their power to avoid overruns - would truly be something.
Should that be true - Nic Cage will never see another "National Treasure"-paycheck, that's for sure. -
Sloth85 — 9 years ago(October 04, 2016 05:38 AM)
Perhaps I'm out of touch given the low predictions bit ill go with:
Dom: $206
WW: $938
A continued drop off domestically although not off a cliff like many feel as I find that this franchise has a following. I think a drop WW is inevitable given Depps falling star but the last one stunk and still made over a billion. I think it's one of those franchises that the oversees crowd just inexplicably loves (see Fast and Furious franchise as well as Tramsformers). -
L0GAN5 — 9 years ago(October 04, 2016 05:41 PM)
Dom: $206
WW: $938
It doesn't look that out of touch to be fair. I think Transformers is a good comparison for this series. The last film lost a third of its domestic audience and about 10% of its non-Chinese foreign audience, so a similar scenario here would result in $180 million domestic and $800-900 million worldwide (excluding China).
The foreign exchange rate has taken a severe pounding in the last couple of years though, losing at least 20% of its value everywhere except Asia, so let's say there is another 25% drop across the non-Asian foreign markets then that would bring the total down to around $700 million (still excluding China).
In the same period the Chinese gross doubled for Transformers, so if that's also the case for POTC, I think $800-900 million is a reasonable projection, once you factor in franchise fatigue, Chinese growth and the exchange rates. -
dalbrech — 9 years ago(October 04, 2016 10:28 AM)
Ouch. If it did break the 300 million barrier, it is going to cut into the profits. Oh,it will make money,but IMHO Disney is playing Russian Reloutte with these constant huge overruns,and someday the gun will go off.
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xbs2034 — 9 years ago(October 04, 2016 11:58 AM)
They already did with the huge overruns on Lone Ranger and John Carter, but Disney has showed they can take flops like those without too much problem. The whole home run or strike out mentality seems risky, but its working, and I bet they would be fine with their other movies even if Pirates 5 is a worst case outcome.
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cornnetto — 9 years ago(October 04, 2016 12:32 PM)
Disney has showed they can take flops like those without too much problem
Well ESPN annual revenue (11 billion) alone is the equivalent of 10 Star Wars Force Awaken movie box office revenue.
The whole home run or strike out mentality seems risky, but its working,
It is going extremely well:
Revenues:
Media Networks $ 23,264
Parks and Resorts 16,162
Studio Entertainment 7,366
Consumer Products 4,499
Interactive 1,174
Total:52,465
Segment operating income:
Media Networks $ 7,793
Parks and Resorts 3,031
Studio Entertainment 1,973
Consumer Products 1,752
Interactive 132
Total: 14,681
As you see the complete studio entertainment segment is 14% of Disney revenue and 13.4% of the profit in a very good year for them (26% margin is crazy for studio entertainment).
The only going for big franchise movie or swinging to create new one, create IP to put into the parks and consumer products. They are probably ok and happy as long as some of them become franchise they can put in their park and merchandise (and you cannot have more than X of those I guess, or they cannibalize each other anyway). A successful one for Disney pay much more and for a decade (pumping sequels, park attraction, merchandises, etc) than a major failure cost them (a one time and limited cost).